>>But Can They Find The Right Campaign Messages<<
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| President Edgar Lungu may just benefit from late Sata's image in the 2016 polls |
By Nyalubinge Ngwende
Elections are won
far away before the polling day. It is the campaign messages that build all the
way to the polling day that give the opposition the favour of opinion polls.
But it is not every
message that wins an election; people must interpret those messages into their
social lives and see the reality.
Therefore opposition
leaders in Zambia must not be cheated, reliance on the negative views in The
Post Newspaper will not help them win the 2016 elections against the ruling
Patriotic Front.
The first reason is
that the PF message of pro-poor policies is still well-grounded among the call
boys, necessity entrepreneurs and others who could be categorized as the
street-wise life earners.
Taxi drivers in
Lusaka own their own cars because Sata and his vice President Guy Scott bought
them the cars on loan which they have paid back. The salary hikes, enforced
through the minimum wage, for shopkeepers and unskilled public workers across
the labour market is still a delight.
On top of this the
labour ministry has adopted a continuation theory, repeating its message to
improve the working conditions of the poor workers by visiting factories and
construction sites to openly give the workers a voice for safety and other good
working conditions. To the workers, the PF government cares for them.
For this the
opposition will have to find a good reason that resonates with voters to water
down the PF policies concerning labour relations—albeit the tilt of the policy
in favour of workers and not capital.
Will the opposition
think through minimum wage and convince the people of Zambia that minimum wage
is not necessarily a tool to reducing poverty and inequality in the face of an
economy that hardly produce? Will the opposition show something better in terms
of viable industries? Can they make a Zambian middle class see an opportunity
to own decent housing, adequately serviced with clean water and good sanitation,
beyond where the minimum wage ends? Its food for thought, but time is running
out.
Secondly, there is
the new retirement law that is unpopular, but it excites those who were on
their way out of the public service after clocking 55 years at the end of this
year or next.
Keeping someone in
employment, especially if one was not ready to retire is an incentive in the
Zambian setup where very few people are ready to work on their own and the
government is their guardian to ensure they put bread on the table every day
through a monthly pay.
The opposition will
have to find a better way to turn this policy mishap to their advantage, but it
will take a thorough thought that will annoy the unemployed youth about this
policy.
The opposition will
also need to see how the junior officers who were eyeing to rise in rank in the
next two years will not see that chance in the next 10 years because the person
in the next senior position has now 10 years more to leave that position.
In other words
promotions have been frozen in the public service, and the only thing that now
remains is to look at the angel of death with anxiety for one to get a rise in
their career.
Does anyone in the
opposition see the cost of this policy in terms of the efficiency in the public
service?
If a director in a
ministry or department is incompetent, then government says it is securing that
incompetence in a 45-year old director on public cost for the next 10-20
years. Unless the public service
commission finds a good reason of incompetence or fault to retire such a one on
public interest, this country has a huge problem at hand, and it is armoury for
opposition with a little more thought.
Thirdly, the new
districts and scattered infrastructure may not translate into any economic
sense at present among the elite.
But new secondary
schools yet to open, and when they do, will still be filled by children from
the line of rail, hospitals that may have no medicines and medical personnel
and a push to tarmac the major roads, delights a lot of those people who have
lived without seeing modern construction.
The PF still has a
strong opinion leadership following in the communities who are telling others
that this is development that their areas did not see in the last 50 years.
One would argue
this point, but the messages in the news of the opposition political parties,
including those from the opposition Forum for Democracy and Development (FDD)
and United Party for National Development (UPND), are yet to rise to that required
frame that will present need for
change of government.
The rise to that frame, how people will see and interpret
PF and Edgar Lungu as bad government and leadership, requires more than the
headlines and baseless negativity peddled on the online media and The Post
Newspaper.
Most important, let
the opposition pick up opinion leaders in the community who will interpret
campaign messages into daily lives of the voters. The papers and radio stations can just tap
into the messages of opinion leaders who are closer and speak on behalf of the ruling
party which still enjoys the majority in terms of last presidential polls.
The opposition
leaders are not talking to anyone in the bigger churches like the Catholic on
anything and what the Church is criticizing the PF for over the constitution is
not overlapping with the public opinion—as at now which is not against PF and
Lungu.
The Catholics won on
behalf of PF against MMD using the constitution issue because of the hefty
allowances the National Constitution Conference was paying its delegates. It
was not the importance of the constitution, but spending heavily on the
constitution in the midst of poverty that angered the people against MMD. Sata
seized the opportunity and chased 20 plus of his MPs who were part of the ‘NCC
plunder’.
No opposition
leader and social groups has found what is resonating to tell the people why
the constitution is important. The messages do not connect to their concerns of
social security or cultural situation.
There is no one who
has created the urgency of national security in the frame of a poor economy underpinned by the constitution in its
current form. The argument is more about the clauses and not the attributes of
those clauses.
Talking about
powers of the President must be what opposition leaders should articulate among
themselves, but how those powers perpetuate our underdevelopment (economically
and democratically) as a country should be what is told to the members of the
public, especially the rural ilk.
The PF voice on the
constitution might win the argument because Lungu is saying no more spending on
the process…“let the contentious issues be included through using the normal
legislative institution, apart from the clauses that will require a
referendum”.
Wynter Kabimba, who
went the route that the country finds itself in over the constitution, is no
longer in PF and that gives Edgar Lungu a good excuse.
Unless there will
be increased pressure from within the Church whereby priests and pastors start
talking directly against Lungu’s administration and get courage to tell the Christians
not to vote for PF, the 2016 PF Defeat may be in sight but yet far.
Bishop Tresphord
Mpundu has already marked his words that the constitution is not the only urgent
and necessary thing that this country requires, telling those who are trying to
make the constitution appear otherwise to moderate their claims.
This goes the same
way with social experts in workers’ unions. They have distanced themselves from
any opposition against government over the constitution.
The labour movement
is divided. They may coalesce around an opposition party that may carve the
best deal for the public service, including a good retirement policy than the
current proposed scandal by the PF cabinet.
Union leaders need
to own up and tell workers that it is not fat salaries that make the economy
better; it is a strong economy that produces beyond the primary products.
The name and image
of Sata is still stuck on the PF and if there was more liking for the imagery
aspect of the PF than its ability to manage the economy, including among the
intellectuals along the line of rail, there is a likelihood that they will
still vote for PF.
The 2011 vote for
the PF was not closer to anything else, but irrational and emotional populist appeal
of Michael Sata, desperately reinforced by The Post Newspaper that had its
personal political reasons to serve.
The Post echoed
Sata and his sympathisers. And that frame
of corruption in MMD was repeatedly and widely interpreted by the Church and
disgruntled public officials who saw an opportunity for jobs in PF.
The MMD had been
weakened by its own achievements. The economy was performing, but it did not
guard against the deals it was cutting that were portrayed as acts of
corruption that benefited those in leadership. Remember the Dandy Crazy song?
Even popular music spoke of the MMD corruption that ignored the plight of the
poor.
Unfortunately,
there is lack of a problem to name and blame Edgar Lungu for as cause of
economic problems in the country like it was during the run to 2011 election
campaigns against the MMD.
Fourthly, use of
the ‘Beer’ frame against Edgar Lungu
as his weakness and inability to run the country finds different mental
structures among the widely imbibing electorate in Lusaka and elsewhere.
Lusaka residents,
like most Zambians do, drink and they do it heavy. And after drinking they
still have duties to hustle and find more money for more drink. It does not
matter if they steal from government or blow up their hard earned incomes to
keep up appearances in beer places. They value life by mingling in bars.
Therefore drinking
is a popular culture than religion in Zambia hence, the beer tag on Edgar is
not an issue. No wonder they are now calling the bigger Castle Lager bottle as
chi-Edgar or chi-Chagwa, in reverence of the President we are told has had
moments enjoying his drink.
No one will benefit
from The Post’s use of opposition
voices to conflict with the current PF government on shallow issues like beer
or the health of the President.
FDD leader Edith
Nawakwi, just like ADD’s Charles Milupi, is talking too much but without
potency and content enough to blow the trumpet.
And lastly, apart
from the fall at Heroes Stadium, if Lungu remains strong throughout, his health
questions may not be an election issue. Zambians sympathise with the weak and
are less tolerant to those who mock others over illness.
PF 2016 Defeat Is in
Sight, but what will bring that defeat is the homework for opposition leaders
hunt, skin and mount on wall in the bedroom of every Zambian voter an issue
that would make Lungu and PF to be seen leading the country on a bad path. That
issue must not be abstract and elitist, but appealing to the common voter.
NN
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